Cycle Top & Bear Bottom Targets for Bitcoin, Ethereum, Cardano
Welcome back.
Hope you had a restful weekend. It was a rather boring week for crypto with minor dips, but we’re picking up steam as we enter a new week. I believe we’re at the beginning of the final parabolic run, meaning retail FOMO will soon kick in and give us big fat green candles. $100K Bitcoin, $10K Ethereum, $5 Cardano are all still in the cards in my opinion. That said, please have your own plan and take profits on the way up.
Many of you who follow me on Twitter asked me for entry points during the coming bear market. So, I’m sharing charts with what I think will be cycle peaks (not recommended for timing it) and bear bottoms (recommended for buying in). Bear bottom targets will inevitably shift once we formally enter the bear market, so I’ll keep you updated on them as well as when I personally enter back in with a big bag.
Now, I do want to share two important caveats. One, despite all the bullish things happening to the crypto space like ETFs and institutional adoption, I think the crash from the peak will still be devastating. Precisely because many people are saying “this time it’s different,” I’m expecting at least a 70% drop for Bitcoin and worse for altcoins. Two, if you hear single moms or boomers talking about buying Bitcoin or entering crypto in the next months, that’s probably your sell signal.
Bitcoin — Top: $160-200K / Bottom $19-40K
We’re peeking above the crucial 1.618 fib level and everything looks right before the final takeoff. Past bull cycles peaked around 2.272, so I’m saying $200K max even though I think $160K is more likely. I like to keep my personal targets on the conservative side. As for the bottom, I think $40K is the most likely scenario (80% drop from $200K). But we never officially tested the 2017 top of $19K, so I’m considering that as well. We’ll keep a close eye on it throughout the bear market as well as the next halving, which will occur on March 26, 2024.
A bigger picture for another perspective.
Ethereum — Top $14.2-18K / Bottom $800-1,400
We’re peeking above the ascending triangle pattern I’ve been singing for the past two months. Ethereum has outperformed Bitcoin this cycle and I believe it will continue to do so for the rest of the bull run. My conservative guess is $14.2K top based on my equation and $800 low based on what happened the last cycle. One key thing to know is that Ethereum tends to peak shortly after Bitcoin and that its strongest month is January. So don’t worry if Ethereum doesn’t do much while Bitcoin is mooning.
The equation that has been true so far.
Cardano — Top $5-10 / Bottom $0.25-1
We don’t have as much information on Cardano compared to Ethereum and Bitcoin. So, this is probably my least confident chart with the most room for error. Just know that newer and smaller altcoins like Cardano will crash the hardest and are not meant to hold through bear markets. Cardano rose astronomically this cycle and that’s why I think it will plummet equally as hard and why scenario C.2 (holding $1 as support) is unlikely during the bear market. We’ll have to see but that’s my two cents for now.
Where we are in the grand scheme of things.
Technical analyses and predictions are fun and all, but I want to remind you (and myself) that nothing is more important than controlling greed. Especially in an exciting and precarious phase like now. So please don’t forget to take profits along the way and let me know how else I can help you navigate the market—analyzing other coins, news coverage, etc. Stay safe out there and see you in the next one.